tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4555 Southwest LAS 09:24 DCA 16:47 17% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 1525 American LAS 11:35 DCA 19:31 21% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958 7h 25m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009 1h 57m Houston IAH 07:47 → DCA 12:04UA 512 8h 14m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:54 → MSP 16:56DL 2262 3h 34m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 02m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 11m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 50m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 58m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 29m 96% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:34 → HOU 11:29WN 138 2h 40m Houston HOU 14:09 → DCA 18:18WN 1911 8h 44m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON