Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2156 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2156 LAS 05:58 → DEN 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3540 LAS 14:53 → DEN 18:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2156 Southwest	LAS 05:58	DEN 08:43	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 163 Southwest	LAS 08:07	DEN 11:01	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 315 Southwest	LAS 08:57	DEN 11:47	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:00	DEN 09:05	9%	2%	0.8%	88%
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1291 United Flight history →	LAS 18:10	DEN 21:11	12%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2126 United	LAS 19:42	DEN 22:33	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAS 11:39	DEN 14:28	13%	3%	0.6%	91%
F9 4612 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 20:36	DEN 23:37	14%	4%	0.8%	73%
WN 1806 Southwest	LAS 10:07	DEN 12:52	15%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 2162 Southwest	LAS 18:53	DEN 21:40	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2157 Southwest	LAS 11:46	DEN 14:31	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 484 United	LAS 15:09	DEN 18:14	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1766 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:33	DEN 12:35	19%	4%	0.8%	79%
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	20%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 3181 Southwest	LAS 13:51	DEN 16:36	20%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2160 Southwest	LAS 15:24	DEN 18:09	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	24%	6%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON