Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2932 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2932 LAS 06:10 → DFW 11:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1482 LAS 12:27 → DFW 17:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2932 American Flight history →	LAS 06:10	DFW 11:04	5%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	6%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 654 American Flight history →	LAS 07:04	DFW 11:59	6%	5%	0.6%	86%
F9 3886 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:41	DFW 13:31	8%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 09:05	DFW 13:58	9%	5%	0.7%	87%
AA 2797 American Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DFW 14:17	11%	5%	0.6%	94%
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	11%	6%	0.7%	87%
F9 3978 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:53	DFW 22:46	13%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	LAS 11:43	DFW 16:41	14%	6%	0.7%	78%
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	14%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 19:15	DFW 00:15	15%	6%	0.8%	65%
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	16%	8%	0.7%	73%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	16%	7%	0.7%	66%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	LAS 12:27	DFW 17:24	16%	8%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON