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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: G4 11 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 11 Allegiant LAS 08:58 DSM 13:50 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4119 Southwest LAS 12:54 DSM 17:39 18% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834 3h 36m Minneapolis MSP 09:21 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 8h 02m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 3h 02m Detroit DTW 20:00 → DSM 20:59DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor 9h 00m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:49 → DSM 12:40UA 596 5h 10m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:37 → DFW 14:17AA 2797 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:56 → DSM 18:08AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 6h 31m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102 3h 54m Chicago ORD 09:20 → DSM 10:40UA 466 8h 40m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → DSM 14:33DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:31DL 2261 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 15:56 → DSM 17:12DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 5h 43m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 47m 97% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON