tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4660 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4660 Southwest LAS 07:42 ELP 10:26 5% 1% 0.5% no record
F9 3450 Frontier Flight history → LAS 16:22 ELP 19:19 16% 6% 0.7% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 06m Denver DEN 11:38 → ELP 13:34UA 2128 7h 04m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:04 → LAX 11:24AA 6425 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Los Angeles LAX 14:23 → ELP 17:32AA 6453 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:10 → ELP 16:05AA 1681 7h 52m 98% 83%
FrontierDetails → LAS 09:33 → DEN 12:35F9 1766 3h 45m Denver DEN 16:20 → ELP 18:14F9 2261 7h 41m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:37 → DFW 14:18AA 2797 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:03 → ELP 18:58AA 555 8h 21m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 1h 18m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 37m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:05 → DFW 13:59AA 1908 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:08 → ELP 17:03AA 2097 6h 58m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 52m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 8h 09m 85% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:28 → SEA 13:14AS 629 54m Seattle SEA 14:08 → ELP 18:36AS 2191 · flown by Horizon 7h 08m 73% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON