tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4763 at 10:44, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4763 Southwest LAS 10:44 EUG 12:50 10% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 08:02 → PDX 10:25AS 596 3h 58m Portland PDX 14:23 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest 7h 21m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 7h 27m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → EUG 17:54UA 502 6h 24m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844 2h 45m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779 55m Portland PDX 21:41 → EUG 22:41AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest 4h 14m 87% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 7h 45m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 19:06 → SEA 21:49DL 2956 46m Seattle SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 4h 45m 74% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON