Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1681 at 22:34 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 11–12%.

Safest bet that day UA 1681 LAS 22:34 → EWR 06:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1731 LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1681 United Flight history →	LAS 22:34	EWR 06:30	10%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 1975 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	EWR 15:00	11%	4%	0.9%	96%
UA 406 United Flight history →	LAS 00:06	EWR 07:27	12%	3%	0.9%	85%
UA 1386 United Flight history →	LAS 16:10	EWR 00:19	17%	7%	0.8%	86%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	LAS 09:56	EWR 18:00	21%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 1933 United Flight history →	LAS 13:54	EWR 22:01	24%	10%	0.8%	78%
UA 611 United	LAS 14:54	EWR 22:56	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 1731 United Flight history →	LAS 12:35	EWR 20:40	28%	11%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 00:11 → IAD 07:36UA 284	49m Dulles	IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396	6h 40m	89%	76%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 00m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:33UA 1505	6h 56m	90%	64%
United Details →	LAS 11:39 → DEN 14:28UA 1006	1h 07m Denver	DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715	6h 50m	89%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON