tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 658 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day B6 658 LAS 07:00 → FLL 14:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 708 LAS 11:34 → FLL 19:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
B6 658 JetBlue Flight history → LAS 07:00 FLL 14:56 11% 4% 0.9% 86%
B6 608 JetBlue Flight history → LAS 22:35 FLL 06:29 16% 8% 1.2% 71%
B6 708 JetBlue LAS 11:34 FLL 19:29 23% 7% 1.1% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345 7h 18m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 1h 07m Houston IAH 16:47 → FLL 20:34UA 277 7h 09m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 7h 15m 91% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON