Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 817 at 01:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 817 LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 805 LAS 18:20 → HNL 21:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 817 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 01:55	HNL 05:16	12%	3%	0.2%	87%
WN 3172 Southwest	LAS 08:30	HNL 12:03	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4712 Southwest	LAS 08:28	HNL 11:32	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1754 Southwest	LAS 10:12	HNL 13:15	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 807 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:05	HNL 13:29	33%	6%	0.8%	65%
AS 805 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:20	HNL 21:39	33%	7%	1.0%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931	1h 27m Kahului	OGG 11:39 → HNL 12:29AS 1105	8h 24m	94%	75%
United Details →	LAS 14:15 → LAX 15:35UA 2184	1h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170	8h 29m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON