Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 138 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 138 LAS 06:34 → HOU 11:29 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4287 LAS 14:46 → HOU 19:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:34	HOU 11:29	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 2176 Southwest	LAS 01:05	HOU 05:58	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 136 Southwest	LAS 08:56	HOU 13:51	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2174 Southwest	LAS 11:56	HOU 16:51	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4287 Southwest	LAS 14:46	HOU 19:41	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON