tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4505 at 14:13, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4505 Southwest LAS 14:13 ICT 18:39 16% 5% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102 3h 26m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 9h 12m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 9h 47m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 21:21 → ICT 22:40DL 2959 8h 59m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 58m Minneapolis MSP 13:20 → ICT 15:11DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108 1h 39m Denver DEN 21:09 → ICT 23:44UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 93% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:37 → DFW 14:18AA 2797 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:00 → ICT 19:23AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 7h 46m 100% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON