Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1159 at 23:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1159 LAS 23:42 → JFK 07:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1448 LAS 11:15 → JFK 19:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:42	JFK 07:21	8%	2%	1.4%	no record
AA 1356 American	LAS 22:41	JFK 07:01	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	9%	3%	1.5%	96%
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 07:00	JFK 14:59	16%	5%	2.0%	81%
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:59	JFK 08:00	16%	4%	1.3%	72%
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:35	JFK 17:59	17%	4%	1.2%	85%
AA 1890 American	LAS 08:49	JFK 17:06	17%	5%	1.1%	no record
B6 348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:22	JFK 22:18	19%	7%	1.1%	73%
B6 248 JetBlue	LAS 15:54	JFK 23:47	20%	7%	1.2%	no record
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:10	JFK 20:39	22%	6%	1.1%	78%
AA 3081 American	LAS 12:38	JFK 20:54	23%	10%	1.2%	no record
B6 1448 JetBlue	LAS 11:15	JFK 19:10	26%	7%	1.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → JFK 19:41DL 1316	6h 42m	89%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON