tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 01:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4738 Southwest LAS 09:27 KOA 12:40 14% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 43m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 07m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → KOA 21:14UA 1723 10h 40m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 2h 43m Honolulu HNL 07:59 → KOA 09:02AS 1048 10h 07m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 9h 09m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 21m 95% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 3h 07m Honolulu HNL 16:36 → KOA 17:34AS 1168 10h 29m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931 3h 51m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 10h 34m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 12:07 → SEA 14:44AS 785 3h 05m Seattle SEA 17:49 → KOA 20:45AS 238 11h 38m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON