Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: F9 3291 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day F9 3291 LAS 06:18 → LAX 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 1382 LAS 17:31 → LAX 18:40 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3291 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:18	LAX 07:42	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
UA 2316 United Flight history →	LAS 10:43	LAX 12:11	8%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 553 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:52	LAX 08:00	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:08	LAX 14:24	9%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:47	LAX 11:00	11%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 10:04	LAX 11:24	11%	4%	0.7%	93%
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:43	LAX 16:06	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 2808 United	LAS 08:23	LAX 09:38	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 335 Southwest	LAS 08:46	LAX 09:55	12%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAS 17:49	LAX 19:07	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2184 United Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:35	13%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 2690 American Flight history →	LAS 07:02	LAX 08:19	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1703 Delta	LAS 17:34	LAX 18:47	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1180 American	LAS 14:31	LAX 15:53	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4127 Southwest	LAS 12:36	LAX 13:45	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1803 United	LAS 16:14	LAX 17:25	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 996 Southwest	LAS 20:06	LAX 21:15	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 715 Southwest	LAS 16:16	LAX 17:25	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1382 Southwest	LAS 17:31	LAX 18:40	23%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON