tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4463 Southwest LAS 09:14 LIH 12:46 18% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 08:47 → LIH 11:41UA 1111 8h 41m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 07m 100% 85%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 3h 17m Honolulu HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033 10h 19m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:54 → LAX 11:07DL 2253 3h 38m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 10h 47m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 1h 50m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 49m 96% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 12:07 → SEA 14:43AS 785 2h 12m Seattle SEA 16:55 → LIH 20:10AS 237 11h 03m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 10h 51m 95% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931 2h 04m Kahului OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049 9h 01m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:19 → LAX 08:37AA 2690 47m Los Angeles LAX 09:24 → LIH 12:37AA 119 8h 18m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON