Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3720 at 08:15, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3720 Southwest	LAS 08:15	LIT 13:18	7%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 09:37 → DFW 14:17AA 2797	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:20AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 18:02 → LIT 18:42DL 2061	8h 16m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → LIT 23:14DL 2083	9h 33m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	7h 12m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → LIT 17:55DL 3025	8h 50m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:35DL 2701	8h 54m	99%	86%
American Details →	LAS 12:27 → DFW 17:24AA 1482	3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy	8h 08m	99%	86%
American Details →	LAS 11:11 → CLT 18:40AA 2981	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON