Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1987 at 16:24, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1987 Southwest	LAS 16:24	MAF 20:30	14%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009	1h 30m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MAF 08:52UA 6263 · flown by Mesa	6h 02m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	LAS 06:34 → HOU 11:29WN 138	3h 25m Houston	HOU 14:54 → MAF 16:23WN 1408	7h 49m	100%	85%
American Details →	LAS 09:37 → DFW 14:18AA 2797	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:28 → MAF 16:51AA 3653 · flown by Envoy	5h 14m	100%	84%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 33m Denver	DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	82%
American Details →	LAS 12:27 → DFW 17:25AA 1482	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:15 → MAF 21:40AA 4172 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	98%	80%
American Details →	LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → MAF 20:02AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	7h 51m	98%	79%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 34m Denver	DEN 19:14 → MAF 22:18UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest	6h 42m	97%	78%
American Details →	LAS 11:43 → DFW 16:42AA 1494	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy	8h 10m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON