Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1988 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1988 LAS 06:59 → MCI 11:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3391 LAS 16:24 → MCI 21:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1988 Southwest	LAS 06:59	MCI 11:42	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2200 Southwest	LAS 09:53	MCI 14:36	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2198 Southwest	LAS 12:09	MCI 16:52	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 794 Southwest	LAS 13:39	MCI 18:25	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2201 Southwest	LAS 17:32	MCI 22:15	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3391 Southwest	LAS 16:24	MCI 21:07	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON