Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2204 LAS 22:46 → MCO 06:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2832 LAS 14:55 → MCO 22:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2204 Southwest	LAS 22:46	MCO 06:11	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	LAS 09:09	MCO 16:29	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	15%	6%	1.0%	71%
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:55	MCO 22:36	17%	5%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON