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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Memphis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:44DL 2834 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 8h 53m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:32AA 3077 2h 48m Chicago ORD 08:20 → MEM 10:16AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 8h 05m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 25m Denver DEN 10:57 → MEM 14:22UA 2789 6h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:54 → MSP 16:55DL 2262 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102 3h 34m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest 9h 05m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 3h 07m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 9h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:08DL 1681 9h 08m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:30DL 2261 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 100% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON