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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1539 at 22:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1539 LAS 22:05 → MIA 05:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 803 LAS 11:32 → MIA 19:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1539 American LAS 22:05 MIA 05:55 11% 4% 0.9% no record
AA 3318 American Flight history → LAS 08:04 MIA 16:03 14% 4% 0.9% 81%
AA 803 American LAS 11:32 MIA 19:17 23% 6% 1.0% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:00 → MIA 16:41AA 1968 6h 56m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:04 → DFW 12:00AA 654 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:48 → MIA 16:53AA 2461 6h 49m 88% 65%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 00:08 +1AA 2090 7h 06m 81% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON