Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1282 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1282 LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4746 LAS 13:54 → MSP 19:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1282 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:19	MSP 11:22	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2834 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:35	MSP 05:45	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 8840 Delta	LAS 00:27	MSP 05:31	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:29	MSP 14:31	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	MSP 18:42	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:54	MSP 16:56	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
F9 4746 Frontier	LAS 13:54	MSP 19:05	18%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON