Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2354 LAS 09:17 → OGG 12:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 931 LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2354 Southwest	LAS 09:17	OGG 12:26	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 114 Southwest	LAS 09:29	OGG 12:40	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 931 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:05	OGG 10:12	19%	4%	0.7%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356	1h 13m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573	8h 19m	91%	75%
United Details →	LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799	1h 24m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	8h 43m	85%	73%
United Details →	LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574	53m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	8h 06m	76%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON