Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4725 LAS 07:54 → ONT 09:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1923 LAS 15:44 → ONT 17:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4725 Southwest	LAS 07:54	ONT 09:01	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 955 Southwest	LAS 11:39	ONT 12:46	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1283 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ONT 08:03	11%	4%	0.9%	86%
WN 4923 Southwest	LAS 15:02	ONT 16:08	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2239 Southwest	LAS 19:54	ONT 21:00	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1923 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:44	ONT 17:04	13%	7%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON