Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1057 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1057 LAS 06:04 → ORD 11:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1497 LAS 12:50 → ORD 18:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1057 United	LAS 06:04	ORD 11:44	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	15%	5%	1.9%	89%
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 09:01	ORD 14:42	16%	7%	0.7%	80%
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 00:00	ORD 05:09	16%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 3077 American Flight history →	LAS 00:11	ORD 05:16	17%	4%	2.1%	85%
AA 3080 American	LAS 09:52	ORD 15:44	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	21%	7%	0.6%	83%
AA 2366 American	LAS 15:50	ORD 21:59	21%	10%	1.4%	no record
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	23%	10%	0.6%	78%
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	28%	12%	0.6%	67%
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:13	ORD 05:40	29%	7%	2.3%	70%
UA 314 United Flight history →	LAS 12:36	ORD 18:13	29%	12%	0.6%	69%
AA 1497 American	LAS 12:50	ORD 18:27	30%	13%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON