Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 534 LAS 06:47 → PHL 14:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1881 LAS 11:15 → PHL 19:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 534 American	LAS 06:47	PHL 14:51	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 779 American Flight history →	LAS 08:46	PHL 16:44	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 1881 American	LAS 11:15	PHL 19:28	16%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 09m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	1h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	7h 25m	97%	87%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 42m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON