Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2244 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2244 LAS 07:04 → PHX 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1541 LAS 16:37 → PHX 17:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2244 Southwest	LAS 07:04	PHX 08:16	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 1808 American Flight history →	LAS 06:45	PHX 08:00	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 162 Southwest	LAS 10:51	PHX 12:03	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 103 Southwest	LAS 08:36	PHX 09:48	10%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1956 American	LAS 09:25	PHX 10:50	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1731 Southwest	LAS 14:57	PHX 16:09	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2446 American	LAS 13:22	PHX 14:48	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2251 Southwest	LAS 19:36	PHX 20:47	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 347 Southwest	LAS 13:31	PHX 14:43	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	LAS 12:14	PHX 13:36	14%	5%	0.6%	79%
F9 4048 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:37	PHX 12:59	15%	5%	0.8%	88%
F9 2258 Frontier	LAS 17:31	PHX 19:00	15%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2247 Southwest	LAS 16:13	PHX 17:25	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 17:21	PHX 18:33	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1541 American Flight history →	LAS 16:37	PHX 17:58	18%	7%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON