tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 421 at 13:31, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 421 Southwest LAS 13:31 PIT 20:27 17% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:32AA 3077 2h 48m Chicago ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07AA 4478 · flown by Republic 7h 56m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 6h 58m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 8h 38m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:36 → ORD 18:13UA 314 3h 07m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102 1h 49m Chicago ORD 07:15 → PIT 09:58UA 1285 6h 58m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 6h 50m 96% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:54 → MSP 16:56DL 2262 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 19:49 → PIT 22:53DL 1134 7h 59m 98% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:22 → SEA 08:43AS 741 51m Seattle SEA 09:34 → PIT 17:12AS 412 7h 50m 66% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON