Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 822 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:22	RDU 05:51	8%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:31AA 3077	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic	8h 27m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 07:01 → RDU 10:36DL 2519	7h 01m	97%	91%
United Details →	LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009	1h 43m Houston	IAH 07:33 → RDU 11:41UA 6148 · flown by Mesa	7h 51m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 00:06 +1DL 402	7h 51m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	8h 58m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	8h 57m	99%	89%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	6h 46m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	97%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON