Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2255 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 2255 LAS 06:44 → RNO 08:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2433 LAS 14:22 → RNO 15:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2255 Southwest	LAS 06:44	RNO 08:07	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 205 Southwest	LAS 08:20	RNO 09:43	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1225 Southwest	LAS 10:10	RNO 11:33	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
F9 4247 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:33	RNO 08:10	6%	2%	1.2%	75%
WN 3605 Southwest	LAS 20:06	RNO 21:31	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 594 Southwest	LAS 18:30	RNO 19:53	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4189 Southwest	LAS 11:54	RNO 13:17	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1708 Southwest	LAS 12:44	RNO 14:06	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 263 Southwest	LAS 17:31	RNO 18:53	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 364 Southwest	LAS 15:57	RNO 17:20	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:30	RNO 20:02	12%	7%	1.2%	71%
WN 2433 Southwest	LAS 14:22	RNO 15:45	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON