Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2047 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2047 LAS 06:46 → SAT 11:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3420 LAS 09:30 → SAT 14:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2047 Southwest	LAS 06:46	SAT 11:23	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 990 Southwest	LAS 10:02	SAT 14:39	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4653 Southwest	LAS 13:19	SAT 17:57	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2276 Southwest	LAS 16:22	SAT 21:01	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3420 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:30	SAT 14:26	15%	4%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON