tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4754 Southwest LAS 19:59 SBA 21:19 10% 4% 1.2% no record
WN 1431 Southwest LAS 11:34 SBA 12:55 11% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 05m 97% 92%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 7h 32m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:14 → PHX 13:36AA 2109 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 17:06 → SBA 18:55AA 1855 6h 41m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 43m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 7h 23m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:30 → SEA 14:14AS 785 1h 46m Seattle SEA 16:00 → SBA 18:24AS 610 6h 54m 96% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756 59m Portland PDX 17:28 → SBA 19:48AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 5h 40m 86% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON