tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4552 at 16:14, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4552 Southwest LAS 16:14 SDF 22:47 22% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:10 → DFW 11:05AA 2932 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:14 → SDF 17:37AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 8h 27m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 8h 14m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 47m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 8h 13m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 5h 58m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 42m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842 7h 55m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:36 → ORD 18:13UA 314 3h 12m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 08:46 → PHL 16:44AA 779 3h 51m Philadelphia PHL 20:35 → SDF 22:43AA 4335 · flown by Republic 10h 57m 100% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40UA 1731 49m Newark EWR 21:29 → SDF 23:51UA 3609 · flown by Republic 8h 16m 69% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON