Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1719 LAS 14:09 → SEA 16:42 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:40	SEA 17:21	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2956 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SEA 21:49	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:28	SEA 13:14	16%	3%	0.6%	89%
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	18%	4%	0.8%	80%
AS 741 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:22	SEA 08:43	19%	2%	0.6%	87%
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	19%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 749 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:26	SEA 19:02	20%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 2283 Southwest	LAS 07:43	SEA 10:19	21%	2%	0.4%	no record
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:01	SEA 10:38	22%	3%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 12:16	SEA 15:00	22%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 1719 Southwest	LAS 14:09	SEA 16:42	27%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON