Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 643 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 643 LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 634 LAS 16:13 → SFO 17:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 643 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SFO 07:35	2%	1%	0.6%	98%
F9 3019 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:22	SFO 08:11	10%	4%	1.0%	76%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SFO 08:52	15%	5%	0.6%	63%
UA 574 United Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SFO 13:12	16%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 1603 United Flight history →	LAS 18:20	SFO 20:02	16%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 2047 United Flight history →	LAS 15:10	SFO 16:45	18%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 4512 Southwest	LAS 14:29	SFO 16:02	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1160 United	LAS 16:54	SFO 18:29	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	19%	7%	0.6%	57%
F9 4401 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 12:25	SFO 14:14	19%	9%	1.1%	52%
WN 349 Southwest	LAS 09:27	SFO 11:00	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1125 United	LAS 09:57	SFO 11:33	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1330 Southwest	LAS 19:49	SFO 21:22	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 570 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 12:14	SFO 13:50	21%	7%	0.7%	58%
F9 4157 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:24	SFO 18:14	22%	9%	1.1%	69%
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:13	SFO 17:47	23%	8%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON