Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1509 LAS 06:39 → SJC 08:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2293 LAS 14:51 → SJC 16:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1509 Southwest	LAS 06:39	SJC 08:11	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4761 Southwest	LAS 07:37	SJC 09:08	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1682 Southwest	LAS 09:41	SJC 11:13	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2294 Southwest	LAS 19:59	SJC 21:32	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4965 Southwest	LAS 17:28	SJC 19:00	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 372 Southwest	LAS 12:42	SJC 14:14	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2293 Southwest	LAS 14:51	SJC 16:23	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON