Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 375 LAS 14:04 → SLC 16:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4740 Southwest	LAS 07:58	SLC 10:18	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:55	SLC 12:30	7%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:00	SLC 19:25	11%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 4912 Southwest	LAS 19:49	SLC 22:09	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 375 Southwest	LAS 14:04	SLC 16:25	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON