Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 8504 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–9%.

Safest bet that day WN 8504 LAS 05:11 → SMF 06:37 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4143 LAS 15:38 → SMF 17:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 8504 Southwest	LAS 05:11	SMF 06:37	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2304 Southwest	LAS 07:42	SMF 09:14	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2305 Southwest	LAS 09:06	SMF 10:38	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 819 Southwest	LAS 10:43	SMF 12:15	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 191 Southwest	LAS 17:38	SMF 19:11	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1402 Southwest	LAS 19:36	SMF 21:09	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 140 Southwest	LAS 14:06	SMF 15:39	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2306 Southwest	LAS 16:07	SMF 17:40	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1809 Southwest	LAS 12:47	SMF 14:13	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 977 Southwest	LAS 12:58	SMF 14:31	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4143 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:38	SMF 17:29	13%	6%	0.8%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON