Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3368 LAS 08:13 → SNA 09:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1414 LAS 12:23 → SNA 13:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3368 Southwest	LAS 08:13	SNA 09:20	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 08:45	SNA 10:02	11%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 3529 Southwest	LAS 09:20	SNA 10:26	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 124 Southwest	LAS 18:09	SNA 19:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1263 Southwest	LAS 19:36	SNA 20:42	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4681 Southwest	LAS 15:27	SNA 16:33	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1414 Southwest	LAS 12:23	SNA 13:29	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON