Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 107 Southwest	LAS 12:52	TPA 20:18	17%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009	1h 32m Houston	IAH 07:22 → TPA 10:49UA 1353	6h 59m	100%	94%
United Details →	LAS 00:11 → IAD 07:36UA 284	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683	8h 21m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:31DL 2261	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	9h 57m	100%	87%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	6h 44m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	8h 17m	98%	85%
United Details →	LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326	8h 24m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	7h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	8h 28m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 11:43 → DFW 16:42AA 1494	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:29 → TPA 21:15AA 2401	6h 32m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON