tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2322 Southwest LAS 09:07 TUL 13:41 8% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2323 Southwest LAS 16:22 TUL 20:55 15% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LAS 06:34 → HOU 11:29WN 138 3h 11m Houston HOU 14:40 → TUL 16:13WN 2029 7h 39m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 32m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 50m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 5h 43m 86% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 9h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 59m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 59m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 4h 52m 89% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108 1h 25m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 89% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON