tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4792 Southwest LAS 07:49 TUS 09:13 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3854 Southwest LAS 15:01 TUS 16:25 14% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 02m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:47 → LAX 11:00DL 2253 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 10:24 → TUS 12:45UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 6h 45m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:10 → DFW 11:05AA 2932 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 6h 16m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:27 → DFW 17:25AA 1482 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:45 → TUS 19:18AA 3140 6h 51m 91% 68%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:37 → PHX 17:58AA 1541 46m Phoenix PHX 18:44 → TUS 19:43AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m 78% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON