Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 130 LAX 08:37 → ABQ 11:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6515 LAX 20:08 → ABQ 23:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 130 SkyWest	LAX 08:37	ABQ 11:45	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4897 SkyWest	LAX 09:08	ABQ 12:19	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 15:00	ABQ 18:07	12%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 4098 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:47	ABQ 23:48	12%	5%	0.7%	90%
OO 296 SkyWest	LAX 20:39	ABQ 23:43	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 195 Southwest	LAX 14:49	ABQ 17:46	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6515 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:08	ABQ 23:09	16%	5%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON