Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2628 at 10:36, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2628 United	LAX 10:36	ACV 12:33	20%	10%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → ACV 22:13UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	98%	79%
United Details →	LAX 12:05 → SFO 13:29UA 1245	2h 50m San Francisco	SFO 16:19 → ACV 17:38UA 419	5h 33m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	4h 12m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON