tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606 3h 09m Seattle SEA 19:49 → ANC 22:53DL 2367 9h 53m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 2h 56m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 13h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 2h 33m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411 11h 42m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746 2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399 13h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280 11h 11m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → ORD 14:27AA 1598 2h 30m Chicago ORD 16:57 → ANC 21:04AA 375 14h 04m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 1h 04m Portland PDX 17:51 → ANC 20:50AS 1455 7h 23m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 45m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 47m Portland PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:30AS 315 7h 07m 75% 64%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:47 → SEA 13:35AS 798 59m Seattle SEA 14:34 → ANC 17:21AS 1436 7h 34m 74% 56%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 1h 00m Seattle SEA 16:33 → ANC 19:06AS 9560 7h 19m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON