Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3216 LAX 00:05 → ATL 07:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	ATL 15:41	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 579 Delta	LAX 00:01	ATL 07:11	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	14%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:10	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	18%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 327 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:50	ATL 17:13	19%	3%	0.6%	72%
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:06	ATL 19:23	20%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 753 American Flight history →	LAX 09:45	ATL 17:15	28%	7%	0.6%	61%
F9 4316 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:40	ATL 20:13	30%	12%	0.8%	67%
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:05	ATL 07:23	31%	9%	0.7%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 08:21 → PHX 09:56DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	57m Phoenix	PHX 10:53 → ATL 17:32DL 348	6h 11m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON