Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 356 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 356 LAX 07:34 → AUS 12:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4153 LAX 18:11 → AUS 23:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 356 Southwest	LAX 07:34	AUS 12:30	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1625 United	LAX 08:09	AUS 13:09	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4945 SkyWest	LAX 18:38	AUS 23:45	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 6243 SkyWest	LAX 09:39	AUS 14:55	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:55	AUS 20:58	15%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 1496 United	LAX 10:52	AUS 16:03	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:05	AUS 15:20	16%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 692 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:32	AUS 23:29	17%	6%	0.7%	73%
WN 4153 Southwest	LAX 18:11	AUS 23:05	23%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON