Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 768 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 768 LAX 06:00 → BNA 12:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2331 LAX 11:51 → BNA 17:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 768 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	BNA 12:06	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 858 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:06	BNA 21:09	12%	5%	0.7%	85%
WN 2331 Southwest	LAX 11:51	BNA 17:40	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON