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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 9h 09m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 3h 36m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 08m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 9h 41m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 2h 49m Chicago ORD 14:16 → BUF 16:50UA 580 8h 40m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 59m 97% 85%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:29B6 124 2h 17m New York JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202 9h 26m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:19 → CLT 17:09AA 3175 3h 56m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 10h 32m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 3h 50m Chicago ORD 18:25 → BUF 20:54UA 1335 9h 39m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON