Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1605 at 23:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1605 LAX 23:05 → BWI 07:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4155 LAX 10:57 → BWI 18:51 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:05	BWI 07:14	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 2333 Southwest	LAX 22:35	BWI 06:32	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 4155 Southwest	LAX 10:57	BWI 18:51	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 18m	94%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	59m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	7h 10m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 17:54 → BWI 21:29DL 2918	7h 14m	90%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON